Saturday, January 30, 2010

Today's Quote

"Whoever tries to imagine perfection simply reveals his own emptiness."

By George Orwell

All efforts to describe permanent happiness, on the other hand, have been failures. Utopias ... have been common in literature of the past three or four hundred years but the 'favourable' ones are invariably unappetising, and usually lacking in vitality as well.

Read the article and think about it, if you are so inclined.




Paper Clips

Paper clips were amazing.

I am serious.  Consider the state of metallurgy 200 years ago.  If you have seen a blacksmith working at a history demonstration, think about just how hard it would be for that blacksmith to make a paper clip.  It might not even be possible.  You would have to get really good steel, with very few imperfections.  Even if it were possible, it would be incredibly expensive.  Before modern technology, wire was rare and expensive.  Someone would have to make the wire by hammering the metal into shape.

But now, we have machines that just churn the stuff out.  Wire is cheap and it is everywhere.  The base technology took about 100 years to perfect, and then some inventor in the late 1800's figured out how to use it to make the convenient paper fastener that we all use without a second thought.

The fact that we have such vast quantities of cheap paper is another marvel.  It used to be horribly expensive to make something white and flexible that you could write on.

That is real technical progress.  Not the fancy toys, but the ubiquitous tools.  Nobody in the year 1810 could have imagined a world full of paper clips.  What will we have in the future that we cannot imagine today?

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

This Is Awesome


This is pure genius. Someone is printing and distributing zero rupee notes. Why would they do that?

But there has been a problem: the Revenue Department official responsible for giving out the patta has been asking you to pay a little fee for this service. That's right, a bribe. But you are poor (you are officially assessed to be below the poverty line) and you do not have the money he wants. And the most absurd part about the scenario you find yourself in is that this is a public service that should be rendered to you free of charge in the first place. What would you do? You might conclude, as you have done for the last 1-1/2 years, that there isn't much you can do…but wait, you just heard about a local NGO by the name of 5th Pillar and it just happened to give you a powerful ally: a zero rupee note.
...
Fed up with requests for bribes and equipped with a zero rupee note, the old lady handed the note to the official. He was stunned. Remarkably, the official stood up from his seat, offered her a chair, offered her tea and gave her the title she had been seeking for the last year and a half to obtain without success.
...
For people to speak up against corruption that has become institutionalized within society, they must know that there are others who are just as fed up and frustrated with the system. Once they realize that they are not alone, they also realize that this battle is not unbeatable. Then, a path opens up—a path that can pave the way for relatively simple ideas like the zero rupee notes to turn into a powerful social statement against petty corruption.

from this article

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Plausible but Unfalsifiable

Ever since I started covering politics, the Democratic ruling class has been driven by one fantasy: that voters will get so furious at people with M.B.A.'s that they will hand power to people with Ph.D.'s. The Republican ruling class has been driven by the fantasy that voters will get so furious at people with Ph.D.'s that they will hand power to people with M.B.A.'s. Members of the ruling class love populism because they think it will help their section of the elite gain power.

Friday, January 22, 2010

Chess and Tool Use

This article has a very important anecdote:

In 2005, the online chess-playing site Playchess.com hosted what it called a "freestyle" chess tournament in which anyone could compete in teams with other players or computers. ...

Lured by the substantial prize money, several groups of strong grandmasters working with several computers at the same time entered the competition. At first, the results seemed predictable. The teams of human plus machine dominated even the strongest computers. The chess machine Hydra, which is a chess-specific supercomputer like Deep Blue, was no match for a strong human player using a relatively weak laptop. Human strategic guidance combined with the tactical acuity of a computer was overwhelming.

That is interesting enough.  But it gets better:

The surprise came at the conclusion of the event. The winner was revealed to be not a grandmaster with a state-of-the-art PC but a pair of amateur American chess players using three computers at the same time. Their skill at manipulating and "coaching" their computers to look very deeply into positions effectively counteracted the superior chess understanding of their grandmaster opponents and the greater computational power of other participants. Weak human + machine + better process was superior to a strong computer alone and, more remarkably, superior to a strong human + machine + inferior process.

This is what the future will look like.  Human entrepreneurs will use new technological tools to find ways to overcome both the existing experts and machines working alone.

Today's XKCD

I'm not sure exactly why I find this so funny.

Thursday, January 21, 2010

Terrorist Damage

I've said similar things before:

Americans are, by and large, a courteous bunch. Interactions with strangers are typically sweetened with a generous frosting of "Sir", "Ma'am" and "Excuse me". Yet in a survey commissioned by the travel industry, more than half of visitors found American border officials rude and unpleasant. By a two-to-one margin, the country's entry process was rated the world's worst. This is not a problem only for whingeing journalists and other foreign riff-raff. It is also a problem for America.

The system is geared towards keeping out a tiny number of terrorists. Fair enough—such people should indeed be kept out. But there should be a trade-off. An immigration official lives in fear of admitting the next Mohammed Atta, but there is no penalty for excluding the next Einstein, or for humiliating tourists who subsequently summer in France. Osama bin Laden has arguably inflicted more harm on America indirectly than directly. To stop his acolytes from striking again, the government has made entering America far more difficult and degrading than it need be.

From this article ( Read the whole thing. )

In my opinion, our ability to attract skilled immigrants is the single most important determinant of our long-term prosperity and status.  We will always be a wealthy and powerful country as long as good and/or smart people want to come here to build a better life.  But if we lose our ability to attract high-quality immigrants, we are doomed to stagnation and relative poverty.