History Lesson

Knowing history is a great antidote to pessimism, panic, or gloomy thoughts.  It may seem that today's problems are new and strange, but if you know history you know we've been here before.  Civilization has survived much worse.  No matter what hits us, I am confident that we will find a way to deal with it.

Flu Analysis

This is a good analysis of influenza, from a biologist.  The main point of the message is 'Don't Panic'.

Man Versus Machine: Jeopardy

IBM is getting bold.

This would be a big step forward for AI, way bigger than winning a chess game.  It will be interesting to see what happens.

Unique Apartment

I renewed the lease on my apartment today.  In the process, I have learned that I am one of only two people paying $225 a month; everyone else gets charged more.  I can't figure out why my apartment is cheaper; I like it much better than other apartments in the same building that I have seen.  Most places have a large combination living room and kitchen, and a smaller bedroom in the back.  I have a kitchen and a bedroom tucked in the side of the building.  There are four stairs between the two rooms; the odd split-level design of the apartment was obviously mandated by the space that it could fit in.

I guess that this oddity is responsible for the lower price, but I like it.  I like the uniqueness of the design, and the stairs make it seem bigger.  I like having a full kitchen instead of a room that is half carpet and half linoleum.  I like the way that I do not have any doors close to my door.

I am also fairly sure that the rent will not go up as long as I am staying there.  There is a big sign out front that says "Apartments from $225".  If they increased the rent to the two of us in the cheap places, they would have to change the sign.  I am basically living in an advertising gimmick.

Suicide Prevention Method

from this post

"Kevin Briggs, a friendly, sandy-haired motorcycle patrolman, has a knack for spotting jumpers and talking them back from the edge; he has coaxed in more than two hundred potential jumpers without losing one over the side."

I suspect that the number is inflated; not all of them would have actually jumped.  But that's still an excellent record.  How does he do it?

"He starts talking to a potential jumper by asking, "How are you feeling today?" Then, "What's your plan for tomorrow?" If the person doesn't have a plan, Briggs says, "Well, let's make one. If it doesn't work out, you can always come back here later.""

Placebo research and Anxiety

This is a fascinating study.  It shows a subtlety to the placebo effect.  They gave people with insomnia a placebo, but told them it was either an upper or downer:

"The insomnia patients taking the 'relaxation' pills slept really badly, and the patients taking the 'arousal' pills slept much better.

What seemed to be happening was that patients taking 'uppers', normally trapped in a cycle of anxious self-monitoring, could attribute any arousal they had to the pill. Any sign of feeling wired wasn't them, it was the pill, so they could relax and fell asleep easily.

In contrast, those who had taken the 'downers' thought that any arousal must be their insomnia causing them problems, and it must be really bad, because it was getting to them despite the supposed sleeping pill they'd taken. In other words, they were freaking out because they couldn't sleep despite the 'medication'."

The general message is that anxiety causes all kinds of problems, and that anxiety often comes from an improper view of control.  If you think you are, or need to be, responsible for everything, you will freak out.  But if you accept the situation, and understand the effect of outside factors, you can be more relaxed, and you will end up doing better.

Baseball and Divorce

This is wierd.  Someone did research that claims to show that having a major league baseball team in your city lowers the divorce rate.

I suspect, but cannot prove, that the research is flawed.  Correlation is not causation.  The study looked at cities that acquired a baseball team, and looked at divorce rates before and after the acquisition.  I am fairly sure that the lower divorce rates and the team acquisition are both symptoms of a common cause: increased wealth and prosperity.